Aggressive game management decisions by Coach Dan Campbell helped the Detroit Lions go from long-time doormats to playing for a spot in Super Bowl LVIII. But Campbell’s go-for-it mentality, most notably on a couple of key fourth-down situations, cost his team dearly in Sunday’s 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game.
In case you had not noticed, Campbell had already established himself as perhaps the most aggressive coach on fourth down in a league that increasingly leans on analytical advice. A big part of analytics in football is fourth down decisions. Analytics often recommends fourth-down attempts when coaches traditionally chose punts or field goal attempts.
Campbell
Campbell’s Lions went for it on fourth down a league-leading 33 percent of the time this season, more often than the NFL average of 20 percent, per TruMedia. In their first two playoff games, the Lions converted three of five fourth-down attempts. They made just one of three tries Sunday, with both failures coming with the offense in field goal range in the second half. Midway through the third quarter, leading by 14, Campbell opted to go for it on fourth and two from the 49ers’ 28-yard line; a field goal would have made it a three-possession game. A dropped pass ruined the play. Midway through the fourth quarter, with the Lions trailing by three, Campbell opted to go for it on fourth and three from the 49ers’ 30-yard line. Another incompletion gave the ball back to San Francisco, which promptly drove for a touchdown and a 10-point lead.
The choices, both of which were close calls, according to the analytics came during San Francisco’s comeback from a 17-point halftime deficit. They also put Campbell’s decision-making under the microscope.
The primary argument against the aggressive approach is that intangible factors such as momentum can play a role in playoff results and that, by passing on the field goal attempts, the Lions lost a chance to stave off San Francisco’s momentum.
The 49ers responded to the first failure by scoring two touchdowns in a span of 2 minutes 15 seconds, helped by a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble on the first play of Detroit’s next possession.
Campbell’s defenders say it is not fair to second-guess the aggressiveness that led the Lions to their first NFC title game appearance since the 1991 season. If Campbell’s gutsy, go-for-it thinking helped Detroit get to this point, why change at the season’s biggest moment?
What do you think?
