The strongest have survived. The NCAA Tournament has four one-seeds in the Final Four for the first time in 17 years. For those who have watched college hoops all season, Duke, Houston, Auburn, and Florida have been the best in the sport. Since each were top seeds in their regions, I am not going out on too big of a limb saying I could see each of them winning it all. Here are some more of my thoughts on how the final three games might go.
Auburn (South) vs. Florida (West) – Saturday 6:09 PM
Auburn was the top-seed in the field according to the selection committee, but I think Florida is playing better as of right now. I am going on the eye test but I have some stats to back it up. The Gators have the second-best offensive efficiency rate in the country. Their lone weakness is fouling while on defense as they rank 169th in opponent free throw attempt rate. Luckily for them, Auburn struggles shooting free throws.
These two matched up once this year, with Florida winning at Auburn. I look for Walter Clayton to once again take over late and lead the Gators to a close victory.
Duke (East) vs. Houston (Midwest) – Saturday 8:49 PM
I see another close one here. Duke and Houston both like to slow the pace down, ranking in the bottom 100 in tempo. We have the classic contrast in style game with this one. Duke is better on the offensive end of the floor, while Houston’s defense is top five in the nation.
Duke blew out Alabama in its Elite Eight matchup after the Crimson Tide set the record for threes in an NCAA Tournament game against BYU. So, yes, the Blue Devils can also play defense. Duke is young but it is the real deal led by the likely number-one overall NBA Draft pick, Cooper Flagg. Still, I like Houston in a classic.
That means my National Title game will be Florida and Houston. I will go with the old cliche – defense wins championships. Look for the Cougars to take care of the Gators.
