The NFL’s version of the FInal Four will take place this Sunday. The AFC will give us a Kansas City at Baltimore matchup while the NFC will see Detroit travel to San Francisco.
The Chiefs advanced by edging the Buffalo Bills thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance and explosive plays. Kansas City will likely need even more brilliance on Sunday as the Ravens excel at running the ball, a part of the game that the Chiefs struggle to stop.
Even though Kansas City came out on top, the Bills averaged close to five yards a rush while amassing 180 rushing yards. Stopping the run has been an issue all season for the Chiefs. Only four NFL defenses allowed more yards per carry than the Chiefs’ 4.5 yard average. That bodes poorly against Baltimore’s dominant rush-first offense. Only the Chicago Bears ran for more yards than the Ravens this regular season (2,720).
I see Baltimore having great success running the ball on Sunday.
Mahomes
Mahomes will have to match the Ravens rushing attack with his passing. What he will face is one of the pass defenses in the NFL. Baltimore ranks second in pass defense. They are especially good against downfield passing. Led by safety Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens allowed a minuscule 26% completion rate on passes 20 or more yards downfield, allowing only two touchdowns and picking off six passes.
Mahomes was able to match Buffalo’s success on the ground. I do not think he will be able to do so against Baltimore.
Everybody seems to want the Lions to beat the 49ers. Being born and raised in Detroit, I also want to see this happen. I just do not think it is going to happen.
The rosters are similar. I just don’t think Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff can be trusted in this road game for Detroit. The numbers tell me this. In the familiar confines of the Ford Field Dome, Goff completed 70% of his passes for 19 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 107.9 rating. In his nine road games, he completed 64% of passes for only 11 touchdowns, six interceptions and an 89.4 rating. Goff was sacked six more times on the road than at home.
The Lions need Goff to be an elite quarterback. Detroit will be able to run the ball, but Goff must generate passing plays to keep up with Kyle Shanahan’s team for 60 minutes.
My Super Bowl is Baltimore and San Francisco. We will review this weekend’s games next week and prepare for the Super Bowl in February.
