Just in case you have not heard, the NBA has a tanking problem. It’s become especially prevalent this season.
There are at least nine teams that are punting on the 2025-26 season. In other words, we’ll go through the last quarter of the season with the 20 playoff/play-in teams already set, while the other 10 teams race for the bottom.
Not ideal for a number of reasons. No league wants a third of its membership actively trying to lose games. You can’t put out a watchable product like that.
When you look at how we got here, it’s pretty easy to see what the problem is. It’s the lottery. The thing that was implemented to deter tanking is actually making it worse.
If the league wants to end or massively curb tanking, they simply need to end the lottery and award picks in the reverse order of standings. Just like every other professional league in existence.
The idea of a draft lottery truly was not thought out. It doesn’t address the actual incentive to losing games. Part of the idea is that if teams aren’t guaranteed a top draft spot, they simply won’t try to get one. But that’s neglecting the simple fact that teams are still going to try to maximize their odds. The lottery isn’t deterring anything.
The other facet of the lottery is that it punishes teams for tanking. You can bottom out and still not get a top pick.
Look no further than last year. The 2025 draft lottery should be the event that dooms the practice. The top three picks went to a 76ers team that was on a down year due to injuries, a Spurs team that already had back-to-back rookies of the year from top four picks in the previous two years, and a Mavericks team that was in the play-in. The four worst teams in the league picked fifth, sixth, fourth, and seventh.
The elite talent at the top of the draft class went to teams that already had elite talent. Meanwhile, the actual worst teams had to settle for lower tier players that are significantly less likely to alter the course of a franchise. Those teams are simply going to have to go back to the lottery well and hope for better luck next year.
Every other team that dropped in the lottery last summer is currently fighting for ping pong balls again.
Simply removing the lottery and giving the best picks to the worst teams removes that problem. Teams are still going to tank for the top couple of picks when they’re positioned to do so, but it’s a lot more desirable when two or three teams are tanking instead of nine or ten. There is no incentive for a team that’s five or six spots from the bottom to try to lose as many games as possible because there’s no chance for a magical lottery to improve their picks.
And once a team gets to the bottom and lands that top pick, they’ll theoretically have an easier path out of the bottom, allowing new teams to bottom out and get their star.
That’s it. Get rid of the lottery, and the tanking problem becomes much less pronounced.
